By David Glenn Cox
Little things mean a lot. General Rommel was once served cake, taken from captured allied mail. He offered that his own men went hungry, while the Allies had the resources to ship cake. It told him everything he needed to know about the Allies’ supply problems. I watched a video the other day taken from a drone. A Russian truck filled with soldiers was racing down a lone country road, all by it’s lonesome.
Vaunted Russian conquers, scared shitless and with good reason. What kind of idiot sends a troop transport down a country road unprotected? There should be an armored personnel carrier and a tank with them at least. Drones or other aircraft should be scouting the route ahead, lest they be ambushed. What reason could there be to send them out naked like that?
Either they didn’t have a tank or armored personnel carrier available to send, or they didn’t have the gas. Then I saw another interesting video. A battery of Russian multiple barrel rocket launchers were setting up in a field. A battery is three units. This group only had two units. Maybe someone in the third unit called off sick or something, and they couldn’t make it to the show? Or maybe, there was no third unit anymore.
After preparation someone yelled fire in Russian. Then only one missile unit fired, sending out just three rockets. The other five remaining barrels curiously silent. I’ve never seen that before, a partial firing. I think someone is running out of missiles.
The driver of the truck for the lost patrol sensed their imminent danger. Keeping his foot glued to the floor, as the first RPG hit the back of the truck. The second missile hit the cab, debilitating the driver as the truck drifted off the roadway and hit a tree. What could have been so important to send an infantry squad of men to almost certain doom?
Another day and another dead Russian General. Four dead, eight cashiered makes a dozen. Plus, two more under house arrest and six dead full colonels. That tells me the walls have ears Spanky! Somebodies listening in on your party line.
And as everyone is already familiar with the concept, that a plan once totally and completely buggered and balled up. Can only then be rescued by a bunch of new people. New people who know nothing about what’s going on, under pressure to achieve positive results, right away.
Throughout the days of this war, many have questioned the Russian Air force. It has been Russian Army Doctrine for hundreds of years to smother the enemy in Russian corpses, until the enemy gives up. Putin doesn’t care about his losses in men, there all always plenty more.
In tanks and artillery, he has the legacy of the Soviet Union to fall back on. Thousands of 80s vintage tanks and personnel carriers stacked up in warehouses. It might take a couple months and cases of starting fluid to get them all running again, but they could cobble together a new somewhat respectable force.
But if you wanted to buy yourself an air force and wrote the check today for it, you’d be looking at two years wait time. If you wanted some crazy number of aircraft like fifty, three to five years. But 100 aircraft, would be five to seven years production times.
The Russians have approximately 900 combat aircraft. From day one, Russian air losses have been catastrophic. The Ukraine’s claimed to have shot down 88 fixed wing aircraft. The Russians shot down one of their own over the Black Sea. One jet made it back to base damaged and that makes 90.
A full 10% of the Russian air force is gone! They don’t have two air forces, one to take care of their security needs and another to fight wars. They don’t have any spare air force lying around. The Russian sent two SU29 jet fighters out the other day, and both were shot down. What do you suppose will happen, if you send out two more?
The Russian losses in radar and anti-aircraft units have left them blind. Blind to the little drones, taking out their supply convoys almost every day. Two days ago, the Ukrainians shelled and destroyed the command headquarters for the Russian 35th Army. They aren’t supposed to know where your headquarters are located. That’s top secret! That’s a real bad secret to get loose. The trucks we’re aligned in neat little rows and the five helicopters sat side by side, like there was no war going on at all.
Only distance weapons can be used now, expensive cruise missiles and cheap dumb artillery. The hardest part of riding a tiger is when you try to get off. Three weeks and heavy losses in men and equipment. No control of the air means everyone is vulnerable on the ground, with an air force that is too precious to lose.
After the war, Russia will still need an air force. Already outclassed by fifth generation fighters, Russia is losing its fourth-generation fighters and its pilots. If the shooting doesn’t stop soon, Russia won’t have a real air force anymore. Only a token shell of an air force.
Already the Russian troops are giving up ground. The invasion of Kyiv is off the table. They don’t have the men or the equipment anymore. The Russians threaten to invade Odessa. While one of the hallmarks of this Russian fiasco, has been too many objectives all at once. Will adding one more objective, help to solve that problem?
After three weeks of sustained combat, the men and equipment are at an end. Their losses are too great for the advance to continue. And the air force is going to become hyper protective of its diminishing air fleet. Abandoning the army for its own self-protection.
Putin will boast and brag and posture, trying to save face as politicians do. But for him the clock is already ticking, and the little red needle is pointing to E. The isolated dictator with delusions of grandeur sees his world being crushed, will he ride it into the ground or call it quits on the world? There will be no second chance for him.
A fleeing truck down a lonely road, out on its only says, something is bad wrong with the Russian Army. They are out of gas. And firing a salvo of three missiles says, they’re about out of missiles, and probably out of a lot of other things too. Military history is resolute, and either the Russians will attempt to withdraw from Ukraine. Or their army will begin to melt away like pockets of snow, hiding from the sun.