By David Glenn Cox
A motor pool officer thinks he might have identified some of the vehicle and tire problems, the Russians appear to be having. Bad tires, cheap Chinese knock offs of a Michelin tire. And you put those tires on a military vehicle and then you park it out in the yard. Then you leave it and let it sit and never move it. The sun will bake the tires on one side, making them hard and brittle and subject to crack and come off the rim. On such things the world turns.
Some have questioned the performance of the Russian air force. Why can’t they control the sky? This isn’t your father’s Russian air force. High-tech fourth generation jet fighters’ cost, many, many Rubles. Flying them and maintaining, them costs thousands of dollars per hour. The Russian pilot averages 90 hrs. per year of flight time. NATO requires 120 hrs. just to maintain minimum flight status. Even more hours for front-line fighter groups.
The 25-million-dollar anti-aircraft system captured by Ukraine, is considered one of the best in the world. When it’s not stuck in the mud on the side of the road. And because it does cost 25 million, the Russians don’t have a whole lot of them lying around. So, when they lose one, they don’t have another one handy. This seems to be a military desperately trying to cut corners and operating on the cheap. The Ukrainians have said that they will put that Russian unit into their own service. An “expert” said, they doubted that claim, because the Ukrainians were untrained in its use. (Nice CIA man will show us how!)
Losing your guns to the enemy is a double worry as you no longer possess the deadly weapon yourself, and your enemy does. But don’t worry, maybe they aren’t a very good shot. All the Russians have to do now, is fly over and find out. As their losses rise, they can’t afford to find out. Thirty frontline jet aircraft is a near catastrophic loss. Plus, the helicopters, the helicopters, and their crews. The Russians have lots of planes, but they also have a lot of air space to cover. You can’t lose thirty front line aircraft in a week and just call it another Monday. Like the missile system, they got em, but not a lot of the really good ones.
And on the seventh day, Russian troops say they haven’t eaten in four days. This operation was planned as a weekend adventure. And they packed for it accordingly. “If your enemy is irritable, irritate them.” If you enemy is low on fuel, attack their fuel trucks. You can’t push a tank down the road to Kyiv, they don’t push worth a shit. Of the estimated 200,000 Russian soldiers, only a quarter or so, are actual combat troops. Most are truck drivers, welders or cooks or mechanics or kids. Only a few are on the tip of the spear. And what have we learned about the Russian military?
You cannot lose 200 tanks and 450 fighting vehicles, thirty jets and thousands of men in a week. The Russians still have trucks and men, but the Ukrainians have blunted the tip of the spear. And the Russians only packed for the weekend and should be running out of about everything. Once you are short of fuel, it is difficult to ever catch up. Either everybody stops, or they’ve used the fuel you’re bringing before you can get back with it.
The red lines on the map show the Russian armies ground gains. But as you gain more ground, you must defend a longer front. Diluting your strength, until your attack force is barely adequate to do guard duty.
This is why Vlad is popping his hemorrhoids. He has taken his best shot with his best equipment, and failed miserably. He shoots at nuclear power plants, because he’s desperate. He’s using nuclear black mail. “I’ll huff, and I’ll puff and blow your house down! If you don’t give in.” He pounds the civilian population with artillery, because it is all that he has left in his quiver. These are Iwo Jima losses, and the tipping point approaches. This is either the end of Ukraine or the end of Putin.
The tipping point where the vehicles and men, need maintenance and aren’t getting it. Where the Russians have planes, but fear using them. The dreadnaught dilemma when the aircraft are too expense to use and risk losing. When you only brought three of the expensive anti-aircraft missile units, and you already lost one.
It has been reported that Putin had decided to go to war on January 18th. Two weeks after the January 6th insurrection had failed. History is filled with coincidences like that. A President who wants to withdraw from NATO and bring the troops home from Germany. At least now, we know what Putin was after. And why he was so interested in helping Twump to get elected in the first place.
Can Putin and his military keep the front moving? Can they keep the tanks rolling? I watched a video of a Molotov Cocktail attack on a fighting vehicle. It got pretty ugly pelted with ten or fifteen bottles; the vehicle was completely engulfed, and the blinded crew were cooked inside like lobsters in a pot. Million dollar fighting vehicle meets five dollars’ worth of unleaded, some old wine bottles, and some seriously pissed off Ukrainians.’
Of all the things the Russians have lost, I think first in their minds is their military reputation. Launching an operation on a shoestring and getting caught strung out on the fence. The historical parallels are numerous, but I think of Napoleon’s Grand Army melting away on the Russian steppe. Or Cortez’s failed escape from Mexico City, or our own bridge too far. The elephant doesn’t fear any other animal except for the ant. The elephant knows that he can’t eat all the ants, but that all the ants could surely devour him.
“For not by numbers of men, nor by measure of body, but by valor of soul is war to be decided.” – Flavious Belisarius (c, 505 – 565)
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