This Carbon Based Life

By David Glenn Cox

Like everyone, I hope the goal is to keep the world out of a world war. President Zelensky spoke to Congress, via a video conference. The Congress was so excited by the prospect of meeting a real foreign leader; they were near beside themselves. Acting like excited little boys at the movie theater. Take them to see Star Wars, and they all want to be astronauts. Take them to see Ironman, and they all want a robot heart. Take them to see a real foreign leader; and they want to be leaders too.

Zelensky wants a no-fly zone, but that’s as good as a declaration of war. In fact, it’s worse than a declaration of war. It takes away the timetable. This is all so very reminiscent to the buildup before the Gulf War. Troops arriving and fighter groups arriving on the border. Only for defensive reasons, of course. All excited and their pants wet, the Congress suggests handing over A-10 aircraft to the Ukrainians, as the next best thing to a no-fly zone. If you were Vlad, what would you say about that? Hostile act? Yes, or no?

“Don’t push the little horse, he will fall by himself.” Every day and in every speech, Vladimir Putin sounds a little more bellicose, a little more angry and a little more like Saddam Hussien cornered and threating his neighbors with the mother of all wars. Raising his pitch and intensity. Now that the totality of the sanctions are beginning to sink into Putin. Sanctions are also seen as an act of war. And the sanctions are everything hostile but shooting at them. Russia is on the North Korea diet, effective immediately.

Göering promised the Furher that he could keep the troops in Stalingrad supplied by air. Under perfect conditions, it couldn’t have been done. But in the Russian winter, it was an idle boast. I saw a study on Russian logistics. The Russians like to use rail to move their equipment and supplies. The Ukrainians have done an excellent job of destroying rail heads. This forces the supply trucks to make a fifteen-hour journey to the railhead and back, on a single two-lane road for their supplies.

For food and ammunition and water and fuel. Estimates say the Russians have 4,400 trucks available for this task. But the estimates also say they would need around 7,700 trucks, running around the clock to keep their army adequately supplied. Like the fox, the goose, and the bag of corn. You can’t have everything, so which would you choose to be without?

If you don’t have fuel, it doesn’t matter if you have ammunition. If the soldiers don’t have all four at the same time, coordinated movement becomes impossible. Videos purport to show the Russians bringing in civilian trucks to try and fill the gap. Only, if the trucks you have now, are clogging up the narrow roads and getting stuck in the mud. How exactly will adding more trucks help you? I’ve lived in Atlanta, trust me, adding more trucks doesn’t work.

The Australians lured the Japanese to chase them into the Owen-Stanley Mountains and the Japanese starved. Every day the Japanese moved farther from their supplies, until they starved to death. The Russians can’t solve their logistical problems because it is an impossible problem to solve. Either they must build a hundred miles of a new railroad, or build a new superhighway overnight. The Russians didn’t plan out the logistics, as the operation was supposed to be over in three days.

It’s like the ghost of the Soviet Union and the legend persists. Thousands of Russian tanks efficiently pouring into West Germany. But that is why Vlad the inhaler is so angry in the first place. It’s not the Soviet Union anymore; it’s just Russia. And Russia has a math problem on her hands that can’t be solved. Every step forward is two steps forward for the logistical supplies, needed to continue.

They can only grow weaker, and without air superiority, the Russians can’t even protect their trucks. The trucks that are now as important as the tanks, as the inevitability of logistics begins to take hold. Today it’s not that serious maybe, but by next week, it will be. It’s sliding downhill and getting worse as it slides. Today you miss lunch, next week, you miss lunch and dinner.

Everybody loves the A-10, and the Congress people have all seen the documentaries, all about them on the History channel. Its combat exploits are legendary, famous the world over. But it’s not like tossing them the keys to dad’s old station wagon. “Be careful and be home by eleven!” It’s less sophisticated than other modern fighter jets, but it’s still harder than Nintendo makes it look.

These aircraft require training, and the battle is on for this week. Unless you had someone else in mind to fly these missions? Maybe a civilian with phony Ukrainian papers and passport? Maybe a pilot without a name, and the Secretary will disavow any knowledge of your actions. Do you really want a fighter jet shooting depleted uranium in Europe?

I imagine the US military is salivating, like a dog waiting for its supper. Fleets of F35’s prowl the Polish frontier and the Russians have made no effort to shut off that pipeline from Europe. Ever wonder why? Either because they are already too overextended now, or because they fear the possible inventible confrontation. This is Russia, not the Soviet Union. They use Navy and airborne troops, throwing everything into the pot piece meal, for what was supposed to be an occupation.

Most, all of the Russian missiles produced these days, use computer chips and components purchased from the west. Chips and components they can neither now purchase, nor produce. As it is also reported, the Russians have a limited stockpile of these high-tech missiles on the shelf. Careful with the ax Eugene, you might need it later.

 The Russians didn’t need a stockpile, as no one has attacked them in almost eighty years. So, they order missiles only as they need them for their own aggression. But even now, it’s questionable, if new rocket or missile orders could be filled by the Russian factory. They could ask their buddies the Chinese for the chips. But the Chinese are having second thoughts about allowing Russia to possibly drag them into the wrong side of WW-3 via WW-1 style alliances. “We like you and all, but not that much.”

The Ukrainians don’t need A-10s, “Don’t push the little horse, he will fall by himself.” Footage of shooting down another Russian jet or helicopter, makes it painfully obvious. It’s so simple your grandmother could do it. Point weapon, push button, watch fireball and go home. It is just as easy as Nintendo makes it look.

The battlefield has changed, thirty jet aircraft lost is close to the Russian’s annual procurement numbers, and it’s only been a week. Every day the Russians get weaker and stuck, and falling farther and farther behind. Their opponents become stronger and better armed, as the predator is about to become the prey.

Russian advances in the South of Ukraine, will not change the battle in the North. If the Russians can’t capture Kyiv, they have lost the war. The Russian forces are strangled by small roads and muddy ground, and are now trapped inside of a killing zone.

The Russians lost another one of those 25-million-dollar anti-aircraft missile rigs. I guess the idea was to set up three of them for a network and now, they only have one. So, air cover is limited at best. Base camps and depots, become the new targets for new weapons. Railroads and roadways become strangleholds, and it’s almost supper time for somebody! But not for you! As the octopus strangles the shark.