This Carbon Based Life

By David Glenn Cox

Chances are, if you were a former superpower who invaded their weaker neighbor. That if you have not achieved all of your military objectives after the first 800 days of combat. Chances are, you never will. It’s the point in the war where the outcome has already been decided, but the battle isn’t over yet.

Russia has announced to military and civilians alike they are withdrawing the remaining (Key word, remaining) air defense radars and troops from Crimea. Lee retreats behind the Rappahannock. The Ukrainians have used drones to such an effect the entire military world is agape. Fifty-million-dollar radar stations taken out with a $500 drone with an $50 antitank grenade duct taped to its back.

Yesterday, a drone fell inside the Moscow air defense ring, striking two parked cars. Targeted or did it just run out of juice and crash there? Either way, the Moscow air defense was quiet and didn’t see nothing! If you live in Moscow and your name is Vladimir, that is a very disquieting thought. Could be, they just got caught napping, shift change, or somebody was late to their post, it happens. Or it could be ammunition was in short supply and your orders are not to waste it on a maybe.

The once mighty Russian Black Sea fleet is literally hiding in a fishing village. Hiding like a scared puppy under the house, unwilling to come out. That is what drones have done to this battlefield. $500 million landing ships taken out by remote control jet skis with bombs inside them. I will guarantee you; China is scratching their ass and winding their watch over this one. Any plans they had of invading Taiwan just went down with the Russian Black Sea Fleet. Any invading fleet would be swarmed by drones as the ants would soon devour the elephant.

Nice Navy, wanna keep it?

The seizure of Crimea was the strategic goal of the war and now the Russians possess it but cannot defend it, and so must leave it. Does that sound like winning to you? Proof crime does pay, a Russian furniture factory was allegedly hit by a Ukrainian drone and set on fire and destroyed. What’s wrong with this story? I doubt anyone in Kiev said, “Eureka! I’ve got it! We’ll hit all their furniture factories. A couple years stuck with a crappy sofa and they’ll give right up. I wonder how the furniture business is doing in Russia these days? They taught me in real-estate school that whenever bars or restaurants or furniture factories begin to lose money, they become highly flammable and susceptible to drone attack.

(With a Russian accent) It was NATO drone! It came out of sky and burned my beautiful furniture factory to the ground. All I have left is insurance policy. (Capitalism is the best!)

But without enough air defense radars the Russians are blind. They cannot dominate an air space they can’t see. If they can’t dominate the air space the game is up anyway, and it’s only a matter of time. Russia has too much and too many assets to defend and not near enough equipment.

Meat assaults, “Okay men listen up. We’re going to take a couple of these old 1960s vintage tanks covered in sheet metal, see?  And then advance in plain sight up this anti-tank mined open road under direct artillery fire. Then, when we get within anti-tank missile range. You men will dismount from your APC and advance on foot one half mile across an open field under withering machine gun fire towards the Ukrainian positions, any questions?”

Do you know what the Russians will do if that doesn’t work? They will try again tomorrow, only with three tanks. This shows a clear disconnect between field officers and the chair warmers in Moscow. They want results by god, and they don’t care how they achieve them. And the field officers’ only defense is when their troops are all gone. Like General Pickett said to General Lee, “Sir, I have no division.”

The drone attacks on oil refineries damage the Russian military, but mortally wound the general economy. Nothing pisses people off more than being cold and hungry with a pocket full of worthless cash. This is prolonged damage to the entire government support system. Russia can’t defend the refineries because it doesn’t have enough radar sets and maybe not enough missiles anyway. But if you can fly a drone into Moscow proper, what good are your expensive missiles?

A Russian offensive against a half-armed Ukraine ends in stalemate and the F-16s are comin. Maybe that’s a good thing and maybe not. Sun Tzu said to always leave your opponent a golden bridge to escape on. Because once trapped they will fight like tigers. The F-16s might be too much. They could make a humbled degraded Russian army do something stupid to defend their honor. Forty or so, well-armed F-16s on the battlefield could pose a degraded Russian air force a serious issue. It might look like the last scene from a James Bond movie.

Five hundred thousand Russian casualties. One half of one million men lost and what has been achieved thus far? The Russian army is exhausted and depleted. The navy is either sunk or in hiding. Their air force aging and depleted with deferred maintenance issues.

 The market for Russian military equipment has flatlined as nobody wants that junk anymore. Drones have changed everything. What good is a $500 million airplane, if you can’t defend it? What good are landing ships or tanks covered in tin ware? What good is a fifty-million-dollar radar station that never saw the $500 drone that destroyed it?

But think of the future. As today’s drone is only the biplane of World War One. Someday clouds of intelligent drones swarming an enemy headquarters or a navy ship. Drones programmed to attack everyone named Vladimir in the Moscow phone book. Drones programmed to come after you personally. Programmed to come remind you of things you may have forgotten about like making your car payment or paying the light bill.

Outside your door the drone hangs motionless in the air. “Attention: {Name Redacted} you are now delinquent on your Visa card statement! Would like to make a payment now? Or should I follow you to work? Big Brother takes wing as the technology war turns against us all.

“Gee, you look thirsty Dave! You should really go pick up a six pack of ice-cold Pepsi products (Jingle plays) at your local retailer. On sale now at participating 7/11s! Why wait? Gee, you look thirsty “Dave.”(Jingle plays) would you like them delivered to you now? Should I use the card on file “Dave?”