By David Glenn Cox
A funny thing happened on the way to Mars the other day. As John Kennedy once put it. “Success has many fathers, while failure is an orphan.” It is not really surprising that Elon Musk only speaks in euphemistic platitudes about the starship now. A massive failure rivaling the Apollo One fire or the Challenger disaster. The starship didn’t just rapidly self-disassemble this time or tumble out of control. It blew the fuck up! Don’t buy those new homes in Elonville, just yet! There could be layoffs coming in the future.
Unlike the old-fashioned government space program with its guaranteed public access. SpaceX has little to say about the matter. As Churchill put it. “My opponent is a humble man. He is a man with much to be humble about.” This is a project which has been going the wrong way almost from the very beginning. A project with more press than thrust. Lots of big talk and bold promises. “That’s one small step for man and one giant leap for Elon!”
In its very first flight SpaceX said, “If it clears the tower, it will be considered a success.” You really couldn’t set expectations much lower than that. Like the Captain of the Titanic saying, If she doesn’t sink in the first five minutes, the voyage was a success. Who launches a rocket like that? Excluding the Russians, of course. Poor design choices designed only to save money! Let’s go to Mars on the cheap! The Saturn 5 rocket had five huge engines powering it. Savings weight and complexity from redundant hardware. The starship’s grandpa, the Russian N-1 rocket used 30 engines in the first stage.
The Russians had a very good rocket engine and so used 30 of them off the shelf, to save money. NASA designed huge New rocket engines for the Saturn 5 which simplified everything. Using 30 engines means fuel lines for 30 engines. Pumps and piping for 30 engines. Controllers for 30 engines, motor mountings for 30 engines. Sometimes trying to save money isn’t cheap. In a perfect world, one giant rocket engine would be the most efficient path, but that’s not really practical.
There has been little talk since the massive explosion and few pictures. But I saw some photographs of what’s left of launch facility number one. And succinctly, not much! In the old days NASA would carry the rockets on a crawler way, way out to the launch pad on the edge of the property. SpaceX to save real estate on its south Texas mud flat built the launch pad close in. So, when the rocket goes boom the launch facility goes bust.
Debris was scattered over a mile away. Huge chunks of rocket and flames went everywhere. Damaging nearly everything nearby. SpaceX didn’t just lose a rocket; they lost an entire launch facility as well. Fortunately, SpaceX was building a second launching pad. And they will have plenty of time to complete it and to repair the other launch pad too! Because starship isn’t going anywhere, anytime soon.
First, they must figure out what the hell happened. No, first they must pick up all the debris and try to reassemble the starship and then figure out what happened. After Apollo one and the Challenger disaster that process took a year and a half to two years. So next Starship launch 2027 or so…maybe. Even for the richest man in the world this was a terrible and uber expensive set back. Do you keep all of those employees on the payroll for the next two years? While a few engineers try to figure out what went wrong? There’s no need to build new starships until you figure out what went wrong with the old one.
There were two explosions. Did the first stage ignite the second stage or was it the other way around? Was it one big mistake or multiple smaller mistakes? Where in the miles and miles of piping, and multiple controllers and electrical circuitry could the trouble be? Plus the rocket detonated almost immediately. So, Good luck finding the flaw through the five seconds of telemetry data before Boom! A betting man would put his money on heads will roll over this. I would guess at least 500 million to a billion dollars in losses, and a space project in tattered ruins.
The whole launch facility must be rebuilt (again!) And the project is back to square one. So, the little design flaws like doors that wouldn’t open, and a faulty guidance system appear unimportant now. Starship has yet to reach low earth orbit, and quite possibly never will. Everything on the launch pad will have to be disassembled, rechecked or rebuilt. And that sounds expensive for a project with zero successes, thus far.
Imagine picking up parts and pieces, nuts and bolts off the mud flat for months and trying to jigsaw puzzle them back together. Even for the richest man in the world this is a daunting task which leads down the path to no longer being the richest man in the world. (Fordlandia!) SpaceX is constantly remodeling the Texas mud flat facility. A well-executed design plan wouldn’t need remodeling. Scaling up production far in advance of flight successes, means you should learn to walk before trying to run. When it rains it pours! While lifting a heavy piece of debris off of the mud flat. A SpacesX crane toppled over destroying it. But don’t worry it was only a million dollars or so. They have plenty more.
If at first you don’t succeed, try, try again! But after trying and trying again, and still not succeeding. It’s time to begin to question basic design decisions. The Soviet N-1 rocket repeatedly blew up. Each launch cost the Russians around 600 million dollars in 1985 dollars. The Soviets after four unsuccessful launches said, “You know what? The hell with this!” The starship has had nine unsuccessful launches in 2020 dollars and still no successes. Next time I go to Mars, I’m taking the bus!
If it is true, you learn more from your failures than you do from your successes. Elon and SpaceX must be very well educated, right about now. The next time the air force wants to take out an Iranian nuclear facility they should try dropping a starship on it. Because what it did in Texas is the greatest defeat in that state, since the Alamo. Maybe they aren’t going to Mars after all. Maybe instead, they’re flying to the unemployment office. Boom! Boom! Out go the lights!
“You can’t have a baby in one month by getting nine women pregnant. ”
― Werner Von Braun
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