The Elephants and the Ants

By David Glenn Cox

What else needs to be said? A geopolitical nightmare, Doctor Strangelove meets Ozzy Osborn. Black Sabbath music sounds like a musical accompaniment to the six o’clock news. If you’d tried to write this story into a book, publishers would throw you out of their office calling your story too farfetched. But what would you name it, anyway? Something to accentuate the theme, I suggest. “The Missiles of March?” or “Earnest Goes to the Defense Department or ersatz “War” Department.”

“Amateurs talk strategy. Professionals talk logistics. – Omar Bradly.

During the Pacific War, the US Navy relied on the F4F Wildcat as its primary fighter. It was a great fighter, but the Japanese Zero was a little better. Faster and more agile. One on one? You can’t hit what you can’t catch. But two on, one and the Zero was in big trouble. The Japanese would put up 150 planes and the Americans would put up 250. Almost good enough is good enough, if you have enough of them.

El Presidente Trumpo says there is no shortage of munitions. Translation? CLASS! “We’re running low on munitions!” Lot’s of real cool super expensive missiles and rockets all fighting the last war. Ukraine has changed the modern battlefield with drones and intelligence gathering. 2,000 fiberglass and lawnmower engine drones will defeat 500 of your quarter- million dollars missiles. Buildable in a garage or a workshop versus high-tech military mega-corporations you see featured in the Marvel superhero movies. Fat stacks of cash and big government contracts! Yes, sir, if we could double our missile production, we could give you twelve of those missiles next month, General!

These quarter million-dollar cruise missiles were better than any technology anyone else possessed back in the day. And so, were worthy of the big bucks. Like your father’s Oldsmobile, they were good in their day. But now, the technology has become so cheap by relative standards and available in mass quantities. The Ukrainians will attack with cheap, dummy cardboard drones first to make the Russians use up their expensive ammunition as 40 more serious drones approach. It’s the dilemma of the elephant and the ants.

Do you see the problem? Not only has Donald Trump dragged us into war. He’s dragged us into an expensive war we might not win. Where the upside is dammed near invisible and the downside, so long. The eternal dark nuclear scenario where the cornered head of state runs out of conventional weapons and decides to take things up a notch. What then?  And ditto a dirty bomb from Iran.

“When you surround an army, leave them a golden bridge to escape across. Do not press a desperate foe too hard.” ― Sun Tzu.

Chief Joseph called the Army General pursuing him; General Day and a half. Everything he did, he did a day and a half late. Americans trapped inside the war zone reported they got warnings from the embassy after the shooting had already started and the crowds were beginning to stir. Oh, and by the way, now that I’m thinking about it. You probably ought to RUN! Flee! Cheese it! Head for the hills! It illustrates just how unprepared they were. As if, it had never even crossed their minds. “Oh shit! I bet, we need to warn them or somethin! Obviously, some of that was bound to happen. If you choose to travel abroad with an insane chief executive loose on the throne at home. Then it’s your own fault. You knew he was crazy. But you went anyway, didn’t you?

El Presidente looks scared and stymied by it all. It wasn’t supposed to work out this way; it never is. Fools rush in where angels fear to tread. Let’s talk about my favorite color. Look at my gold curtains, my ballroom, or the new Ben Franklin statue. The president is showing signs of an emotional shutdown. “Tell me about the rabbits again, George.” His face looks haggard and his pallor blotchy. Who is minding the store? While El Presidente takes a mental vacation? I dunno if they’re any good, but I know they are loyal to Trump.

It’s one of those the rubber getting to meet the road sort of thing. Idiots are tolerable if there nothing important is going on. They tend to get in the way in an emergency, I actually felt sorry for little Marco Polio. He gave his press briefing like their were rubber bands tied around his scrotum. This face said it all. “I don’t wanna be here!” Marco’s face was marked by a universal message.  Like a guilty little boy caught red-handed and not wanting to own up or make eye contact. Were you a bad little boy? Did you have a little accident?

The misadministration went from “No boots on the ground” to foreign mercenaries, to now, “American boots” on the ground in four days. Does that sound like something planned to you? Or is it  an “Oh, shit! We have to do something! Drastic! Quick! The Strait of Hormuz is closed, but Mr. Trump has offered to pay the exorbitant insurance premiums for the shippers. (It’s only money, right?) But first. Are there any insurers out there at any price? Are there any there any stout-hearted merchant sailoring men / adventure seekers, available to crew said vessel?  And maybe if not killed outright might be taken hostage for a year or two.

El Presidente says, our navy will guard and escort oil tankers. There is a reason they call it a blue-water navy, you know. The absolute worst situation you could put blue-water navy ships in is a narrow channel passage. You saw what happened to Sonny Corleone! So what happens if Iran destroys just one oil tanker? They only need to destroy one. Then there would be no second tanker. What if they hit a navy ship? It’s a twenty-mile-wide channel and ships must stay in mid-channel like ducks in a row. While a missile traveling at above the speed of sound would reach ten miles in? It would be like catching a bullet from across the room. And the Iranians only have to hit one. They don’t have to win every battle, just one or two. Would tankers travel the strait after a potential dirty bomb?

Donald Trump has just crossed over officially into the most hated president ever, as a majority of Americans now report they “strongly disapprove of Donald Trump.” Welcome to the room! This made me laugh when they added, “At this point in his second term.” Like there is some other president out there who’s even possibly close. It reminds me of the Cuban Missile Crisis. Where the pressure kept building with the potential to get very ugly very quickly, without a moment’s notice.

Iran has a standing army of 600,000 and they’ve mentioned sending 50,000 mercenaries or American soldiers against 600,00 plus auxiliaries? In a city where air support would be minimal. I don’t think so. Iran doesn’t need to win, just survive, to make the US lose. Soon the US and Israel will run out of targets to bomb. Iran knew that  this attack might come someday. But sending troops in sounds like a bluff. “Don’t you make Mama leave her stories and come in there!” Yes, Mother. But at this point, you can’t expect sanity when their morality is broken.

China wants its oil and Donald, and he just shut it off. The Chinese don’t just sort of want their oil, Donald. They really want their fucking oil, Donald. In fact; they demand it immediately. Not sorta or maybe or maybe after a while, but now, Donald!  They need their oil like this country needs its oil. So to speak, to the point where “all options” are on their table.

We are in a dangerous time of great peril. The greatest manufactured war machine in the history of the world being led by an elderly, deteriorating amateur warlord who hires for pedigree, not resume’. Who believed all he was what was told about Iran and now discovers he’s in a war that was supposed to be over by now. The starship Enterprise in the hands of amateur morons and know-it-all fools. The Cuban Missile Crisis with Donald Trump in charge instead of John Kennedy. Suspend schools; take your vacations early. Love your spouse. See the world, what’s left of it anyway, while you still can. Or maybe spend time “On The Beach,” As for me…

“I’m gonna cut the soles of my shoes. Sit in a tree and learn to play the flute.”-The Firesign Theater

“Every now and then when your life gets complicated and the weasels start closing in, the only cure is to load up on heinous chemicals and then drive like a bastard from Hollywood to Las Vegas … with the music at top volume and at least a pint of ether.” Hunter S. Thompson,

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