This Carbon Based Life

By David Glenn Cox

How bad is it? How bad could it actually be? It’s so bad that Donald Trump is now openly asking for help. Of course, he’s asking with that famous twang of Trump attitude of “You owe me!” Trump wants an international armada to come pull his chestnuts out of the fire. The very idea screams desperation. Suddenly, all those lazy good for nothing allies of ours are fine fellows again, after-all. Gee fellas, you should really help us out, after-all. It’s your world too! You Know! Never mind what we said about not needing any help.

The administration wouldn’t openly ask a thing like that, publicly, no less, if it wasn’t bad. Oh, shit, the house must be on fire. Come one, come all, and nobody came. Donald Trump is trying to expand the war. Guarding traffic in the Strait of Hormuz is a fool’s errand. A thankless task for token superficial gains. Drones, mines, robot boats. It’s fighting inside a closet. All the assets and strengths become weaknesses and liabilities. The guarding ships become assistant targets. Missing the point that Iran doesn’t have to stop every tanker, just a random one every now and then.

But we will have to guard them all forever. The insurance rates are soaring to six or seven times the normal rate. If your vessel is flagged in Asia, maybe it’ll be alright. But if your vessel is flagged in the west, maybe not. It’s the uncertainty of not knowing what both sides are capable of. The US attacked “military targets” on Kharg Island. Ninety percent of Iran’s oil passes through Kharg Island. The strikes received pointed criticism from the Chinese. There are rules in this, here war. Thou shalt not attack China’s source of oil. No, no, no! Off-limits, verboten.

I see a Vietnam dynamic setting up where US power is limited. Where there are rules about which  targets can be attacked. The pressure builds. Even the Great Satan can’t drop bombs forever. They’re stuck; The answers lie in a thousand unforeseen dangers. The Trump administration is barefoot in a cactus patch. No one is going to help them because they asked for this. They told the world to “stand back! I’m gonna do something amazing!” and now they’re hoisted by their own petards.

The second reason is it’s such a thankless task and open-ended obligation. No good can come from it. But by asking for help, it means the Navy brass has answered, ”Hell no! We can’t do that!” Wrong Navy. Wrong war. If you need an aircraft carrier battle group to project power, call us. But if you need someone to nursemaid a bunch of civilians and check their papers, forget it! It’s a voice calling to you from a dark alley; don’t answer.

In the Gulf States, they’re already talking about May and June, and a potential shutdown of production. The weekend war extends into next summer. Fools rush in where angels fear to tread. You break it and you bought it! Now, Trump wants help, and it’s not forthcoming. How does Trump normally behave when faced with a disappointment? He’s going to get red-faced pissed off. He doesn’t behave like a normal president and doesn’t understand why he doesn’t receive the same normal presidential deference. He won’t take this news well, because it means the US is fully isolated and without friends.

So the US is stuck with guard duty, all alone. Until…? The largest foreign policy screw up since the Bay of Pigs fiasco. The Trump administration, by asking for help, signals they are fresh out of bright ideas and welcome external input. (Help! Somebody save us!) The US will be eventually forced to stand down. They can’t make Iran quit without troops. And troops mean escalation, and escalation means longer time frames. Trump sends 2,500 Marines on a ship to a country roughly the size of Texas with a standing army of 600,000.

Every escalation only deepens the morass. But all a pompous arrogant leader can do is threaten and bluster. No one is coming to help us, and we have to get our own pants unstuck off the fence.

Standing down in the Iran conflict will leave the Trump administration embarrassed as hell across the world. But at least the world will celebrate the return to normal. But US power would be broken, in the Middle East. Know-it-all cowboys who could get us into a bunch of trouble. Then he wanted us to patrol the Strait for him. Maybe US power isn’t all it’s cracked up to be? Maybe this orange, off-kilter cowboy is more trouble than he’s worth?

And all the king’s horses and all the king’s men can’t put Humpty Dumpty back together again. A problem without a solution. No good answer is available. He can either quit now and accept defeat, or he can continue to raise the stakes, stumbling into a disastrous world war and an economic crisis.

The Iranians have said that Donald J. Trump is their target. If this war is still going on in June, Trump and the Republicans are doomed at the polls. It’s a war without an upside. There is no victory possible. Only staving off defeat in an open-ended, expensive conflict potentially lasting …years.

Venezuela was so easy. I bet Iran will be easy too! And then, we’ll do Cuba! It all seems so simple until it all goes wrong. Blow smoke up the old man’s butt and get him all hepped up. Then zang! We decapitate Tehran and we get our boy crowned king or pasha, Ayatollah or satrap, whatever. Three days and it will all be over. Think of the riches! It’ll be easy!

A situation where the superpower finds its actual limits. The US can’t stop Iran from strangling the world economy. I guess nobody thought about that. The US can’t guard the Strait of Hormuz alone or with partners. Iran can strangle the world economy into a Great Depression if the United States doesn’t relent. The entire world is facing down a disaster and all because of one man.

Increasingly the administration looks completely disheveled and disordered both at home and abroad.

“The communications apparatus at headquarters was remarkable…It was possible to communicate directly with all important theaters of the war…They could be directed from Hitler’s table in the situation room. The more fearful the situation, the greater was the gulf modern technology created between reality and fantasies with which the man at this table operated.” ― Albert Speer,