By David Glenn Cox
Someone murdered Iran’s top nuclear scientist Moshed Fakhrizadeh in a well-orchestrated well-armed attack. There are only two suspects capable of pulling off such a crime. Iran immediately blamed Israel, which is a fairly good and predictable guess. Israel fears themselves to be the likely target for such an atomic bomb. Perhaps it is only paranoia but how do you take risks with nuclear annihilation? A nuclear armed Iran would pose a direct threat to Saudi Arabia, and we know who their friends are.
You can’t tell the players without a scorecard, Under the doctrine of everyone hates Israel you could assume Israel to be Iran’s target. And because of Israel’s geographic size it would only take one bomb so they can’t take a chance. But Iran and Israel have cooperated before and found themselves strange bedfellows more than once. The Iran Contra scandal involved shipping tow missiles from Israel to Iran. Yeah, that’s suspect number two. From Israel’s perspective this was either a golden opportunity or a golden opportunity to stand down. An incoming new administration with every intention of trying to bring Iran back into the political fold. Assassinations to deal with on day one, won’t win you any friends with the new Administration.
Assassinations mess up negotiations, don’t they? It is so easy to blame Israel that a rouge state could get away with murder. Of course, if you wanted to pull something like this everyone involved would need to look like the people in the region. Being undercover, you couldn’t go to Achmed’s Rent a Truck and what about the logistics? What was the time frame on this operation? Who told the plotters where Fakhrizadeh would be and when? Was this attack planned weeks ago or the day before yesterday?
Saudi Arabia and Iran have bad blood going back for decades. Iran is a large country with a large population and a lot of money. The Saudi’s have a small population with more money than God. When Saddam attacked Iran, Riyadh wrote checks. While not participating in Iraq’s war with Iran directly they voiced their wholehearted approval monetarily. The Saudi’s fear any Iranian bomb would be pointed at them or at very least be the ultimate, “Get out of my way chump” weapon. Rumors have persisted for years of Saudi desires to buy a bomb. A black-market cash price nuclear program, “Meet me in the alley at ten o’clock.” While it’s real nice to be under someone’s nuclear umbrella, owning your own nuclear baseball bat is even better. If you can play the political game of maybe, I do have one and maybe I don’t, better still.
If you were suspected of doing something like that your neighbors and adversaries would be forced to respond. Especially, if you were surrounded by hostile neighbors like Russia to the north, Iraq to the west, Afghanistan to the east and Saudi Arabia closing the box in the south. Funny, I don’t see Israel’s name on that list. Living in Cowboy and Indian America where everything is either snowy white or ebony black. It must be Israel, because the United States would never do anything like that…now!
Iran claims its nuclear ambition is to provide self-sufficient power in a post petroleum economy. But the United States controls the nuclear fuel market. Self-sufficiency becomes a joke when you must buy your fuel from your enemy. If you must buy nuclear fuel from your enemy, your enemy has your economy by the scrotum. Iran should not being developing a nuclear capability but if I were the leader of Iran, I certainly would! Which brings us back around to where we are. When the Allies discovered the German rocket facility at Peenemunde, they immediately bombed the barracks and left the test stands untouched. You can build another test stand, but you can’t build another Werner Von Braun.
But unless this Fakhrizadeh just started last week, the Iranians already have an organizational plan. Flunkies aren’t running into his office asking, “Okay, we set up the uranium enrichment, what do we do next?” Unfortunately, building an atomic bomb isn’t the mystery it used to be. The internet will gladly tell you how certain you can’t obtain the necessary materials. Any engineer worth his salt could take it from there, besides, it doesn’t really even have to work. If it looks like it might. Who trusts that the gun is not loaded?
It means that this murder was a wasted exercise in state sponsored terrorism. That any bomb building plans underway are unlikely to be hampered. This was about provocation, “we killed your best boy, now what are you going to do about it?”
Would Israel murder Fakhrizadeh if the United States said, “No, this is a bad time and it probably wouldn’t make any difference anyway.”
I dunno, I seem to remember this orange guy who ordered the assassination of Iran’s top military leader. It almost got us into a shooting war with Iran. Because President Doesn’t read much he thinks Son Tzu is that lady that sells sunscreen by the seashore.
“Hence to fight and conquer in all your battles is not supreme excellence; supreme excellence consists in breaking the enemy’s resistance without fighting.”- Son Tsu
But someone we know is in a bad mood these days. Someone we know not known for clear and rational thinking. Someone with a vendetta who likes sneak attacks. First, they withdrew stimulus money from an economy in trouble. Then refusing to concede and allowing the transition to begin. A month-long festival of childish boorish behavior and now, has someone killed Iran’s top nuclear scientist during a Presidential transition. Something our allies probably would not do fearful for the ramifications on the new Administration.
I bet if I were Joe Biden, I could figure out who was responsible.
“It’s always tease, tease, tease
You’re happy when I’m on my knees
One day it’s fine and next it’s black
So if you want me off your back
Well, come on and let me know
Should I stay or should I go?” – The Clash