By David Glenn Cox
I’ve watched enough prison movies to know that when a new guy reaches general population someone is going to be out to test them. Already the pundits are taking Joe Biden to task for air strikes in Syria. Last time we visited Syria; Donald (Unconditional Surrender) Trump had just given away our forward bases to the Russians leaving our troops vulnerable to rocket attack. Well, the rocket attacks came, and the rockets came from over that away. And as is so common in the Middle East, the people over that away claim to have no knowledge of the rockets. They were just sitting in their Iranian tents and their Iranian uniforms listening to an Iranian radio station. After Donald (Unconditional Surrender) Trump, it isn’t really all that surprising that someone would try to test the new President.
“Sorry Dude, we don’t know anything about any rockets.” Do you see that squadron of F-18’s up there? “No,” Good!
There are two major players excluding Israel in the Persian Gulf. Everyone knows Saudi Arabia has more money than God. A large area to defend with a small population. The Iranians are not Arabs, they are Persians with no interest in Palestinians Arabs. They have lots of oil too with a large population filled with men eligible for military service. Back when Saddam Hussein began his unprovoked eight-year bloodletting against the Iranians. The Saudi’s were officially neutral during the conflict, while unofficially writing checks to Saddam. The US was supplying the Iraqi’s with intelligence, anxious for an Iraqi victory. I guess that’s probably how Mike Pence feels. “You want me to make nice with people funding my enemies and trying to kill me?”
The Iranians offer a simple gambit. We have reached peak oil and fear we will be left without the resources to rectify the problem if we don’t act now. Their solution is a string of nuclear reactors to power the country and giving them their energy independence. But in a mountainous region prone to earthquakes, you be the judge. For Iran’s neighbors and adversaries, the threat is obvious. What isn’t so obvious is the irritant. Iran is trying to achieve energy independence and if she has to buy nuclear fuel on the international market, she could be embargoed right out of business.
The counter: The Iranians have a secret nuclear ambition to build an atomic bomb to drop on Israel. I hate it when they pretend other countries are stupid. The first nuclear device to hit Israel would represent the last five minutes of Iranian history. Plus, you have to get it to Israel and they generally pay close attention to hostile aircraft nearing their airspace. Why would Iran want to bomb Israel anyway? But what about a device hitting Riyadh? Would the world lose it’s shit over Riyadh? An important region of the world geographically, economically, and militarily. Anwar Sadat kicked the Russians out of Egypt in 1972, and the Russians have been trying to get back in ever since. The Russians have their own abundance of oil and giving them leverage on the international market would be like a key to a bank vault.
It is sold to us in the West that the Iranian leadership are fire breathing devils. Madmen and it might well be, but the Iranians do have a point. Under the Atoms for Peace treaty, the US should assist Iran and not attempt to strangle them. Are the Iranian fears of nuclear embargo unjustified? If you where the Iranian President would you allow your country to become dependent for nuclear fuel from your enemies? Next comes the question, are they really trying to build a bomb at all or just trying to make everyone think they’re building a bomb. Pretending seems more cost effective, makes your adversaries more amenable. Those secret nuclear facilities are even harder to find if they don’t exist. Every once in a while, leave a laptop here or there in a bus station with math homework. It can’t fall into the wrong hands and requires no long-term maintenance. Plus, your adversaries will gladly spread the propaganda for you for free!
Rumors have said for years that the Saudis want to buy a bomb. None of this North Korean home-built crap with 007 Nuclear labs and test facilities for them. Just buy the damn thing off the rack; we just want it to show off anyway. If Iran is going to pretend to build a bomb, then we’ll beat them to the punch. We will pretend to buy a bomb. Two large powerful states in a balkanized region of tiny states which like Monte Carlo exist only at the King’s pleasure. A regional conflict pushed to international limits growing more dangerous as the clock runs out. Fifty percent of Americans say they would consider purchasing an electric vehicle as their next car. Like the electric lightbulb to the gaslight the future is clear. Rather than peak oil we have hit peak demand.
With every pump of the derrick, they grow weaker. Maybe murdering that journalist wasn’t such a good idea in the long-term scheme of things. And the new Administration doesn’t like your war in Yemen either. Best not to overplay your hand, you are not as important as you used to be. And maybe if they fear their protector might leave them soon? Strike now and take your chances or wait and possibly lose the strength? Globally electric vehicles are increasing by 40% year over year. Factories churning out electric trucks and electric utility vehicles. Electric bicycles and even electric skateboards. During the American Civil War, the Confederacy hung their hat on Great Britain’s need for King Cotton. “They’re sure to come in on our side; they need our cotton.”
The Britts began growing cotton in India and found it way cheaper than going to war and left the Confederacy to rot. And left two antagonists to beat each other’s brains out as the world moved on.
Peace, first last and always. But you can’t ever allow yourself to be punked. And after Donald Trump they will all assume you are a punk; until you show them otherwise.