This Carbon Based Life

By David Glenn Cox

What can you really say? Like Europe in the 1930s, with political crisis, after political crisis leading to a World War. The United States and Iran were in peace negotiations for 21 hours in Pakistan. Then, when no solution appeared by alchemy. The parties left with no future negotiations planned. What? Just one marathon special negotiation and then just quit? War for a month, but we will try talking for just a single day. Then what? Back to shooting?

That is why Churchill declined from ever asking for German terms. It’s a slippery slope, and you can’t always get back to where you started once you start down that road. The US threw down its 15-point plan and the Iranians their 10 points, and the speechifying began around each side’s positions and surprise; nothing much was accomplished. But that’s okay; it’s better to work for peace poorly than to succeed at war. The idea of just one meeting is absurd.

This war, as it solidifies, will have ramifications for the rest of the century. The future depends on it. Oil prices depend on the outcome. The world economy depends on the outcome. A boring orange blunderbuss spewing rhetoric and one-way threats and communications will try talking with someone rather than talking at someone, but only for one day. Curiously, JD Vance was said to be the only cabinet member against the war. So, JD gets the assignment to go bring peace. Okay, JD, we’ll try it your way! (We’ve already tried everything else.) Go talk to them, JD. You have one day!

Obviously, peace wasn’t going to be achieved in a single day. The time limit makes it a dog and pony show. A stunt to undermine JD Vance. To send him on a thankless errand, handicapped and doomed to fail. The Iranians profess to be bargaining in good faith. The US? Maybe yes, and maybe no. JD stood against Trump and his circle-jerk cabinet. Does Trump admire JD’s ambition? His pluck and his desire to bring peace? How does Mr. Trump handle such breaches of opposition?

JD is the only cabinet member Trump can’t fire. JD has the most invested in the future outcome. If this war goes south, goodbye JD! So, perhaps since “Old Charlie stole the handle and the train it can’t slow down,” JD shows his independence and bucks the herd and the king on his doomed, pre-failed mission.

This morning the king is back to making his threats about closing the straits of Hormuz to Iranian traffic. Basically, an oil siege. Will the United States Navy attack civilian oil tankers?  How exactly will this US blockade work? Will the navy move to interdict rogue Iranian shipping, directing them to  neutral ports? What if they won’t stop? What then, John Glenn? Blast them? Turn the passage of 20% of the world’s oil into a fiery inferno? Call in an airstrike?

Just how far up is the Navy planning on patrolling up the strait? A big navy ship in a narrow Hormuz waterway with miles of rugged shore is a dangerous way to live. But patrolling for weeks on end is just asking for it. Friday, the US position was that Iran couldn’t have unilateral control of the Strait. By Monday, the administration’s position was that THEY will take unilateral control of the strait. They will blockade the Strait with drones and fighter aircraft. Once again, the misadministration leaps before looking. If Iran stops shipping oil, that’s a bad thing. Whatever hardship it works on Iran, it will work on the world economy first.

Who or what will give first? Iran, the US, or the world economy? After a month of war, Trump is back to his plan of patrolling the Strait after admitting defeat a month ago. Now the idea is back because there’s nothing else new. The administration was stuck and is still stuck. The US went to Pakistan to demand the Iranian surrender, and the Iranians expected the US to surrender.

Mr. Trump’s unhinged rants about destroying civilizations provoked the ire of Pope Leo. So now, Mr. Trump is in a shouting match with the Pope of Rome. But such unhinged saber-rattling has refreshed talk about using the 25^th Amendment. But history tells us that the cult stays loyal to the leader down to the bitter end. This is the end of the parade. Seven months to the midterms and the administration is in freefall. Seven months until lame-duck status.

The US can’t/won’t acknowledge Iran’s checkmate. Iran can stop the traffic in the Straits of Hormuz, and there is not much the US can do about it. Bombast, bluster, and bullshit, but it doesn’t change the situation. Iran can stop the traffic. The insurance companies will see to it. Sailors can see two years in Iranian captivity or death from above by a US airstrike.

So Mr. Trump’s own threats defeat him. Mr. Trump’s verbosity makes certain that no resolution is possible. Slowly damaging the world’s economy in a hundred unseen ways. Dragging the US reputation through the mud with every new threat or war crime. Who is the aggressor here and who is the victim of aggression? Who was stupid enough to doom his own administration with an obvious quagmire?

Who will break the news to the malignant narcissist that the war is lost? Maybe no one. It’s too dangerous to disagree with the king. They could be fired for defeatist talk like that. A college of collegial cardinals in a cabal sycophancy and never being the nail to stick up. Rule number one: the boss is always right. Rule two: never argue rule one. So none will dare tell the king the truth.

“There is no other way to guard yourself against flattery than by making men understand that telling you the truth will not offend you.”
―Niccolo Machiavelli,

So, let us not be blind to our differences–but let us also direct attention to our common interests and to the means by which those differences can be resolved. And if we cannot end now our differences, at least we can help make the world safe for diversity. For, in the final analysis, our most basic common link is that we all inhabit this small planet. We all breathe the same air. We all cherish our children’s future. And we are all mortal. – John F. Kennedy