This Carbon Based Life

By David Glenn Cox

In my mind, I can see a snapshot of the Russian soldiers pulling out of Afghanistan on the backs of their personnel carriers crossing that last bridge. I had thought about this for a long-time. My prophecy for the war in Ukraine had misfired and gone askew years ago. I had foolishly and stupidly foreseen the Russian elites removing Mr. Putin before he took them over Niagara Falls in a barrel. I couldn’t have been more wrong about that. My forecast so flawed, my ego so bruised. Then former General Ben Hodges came along and said, “He was wrong too!” And he’s supposed to know what the hell he’s talking about, so my ego felt some better about the entire situation.

But the Russian evacuation from Afghanistan came suddenly. Helicopters on the embassy roof in Saigon came suddenly too. Before retreat comes defeat. When it becomes abundantly clear that your strategy isn’t working and the enemy’s strategies are working. The Russian Army once had a reputation for being the second-best army in the world. That reputation is laughably long gone! They appear to be the creaking, aging edifice and the ghost of former Soviet power. Look at this bomber fleet my Daddy Leonid left me from 1985! Ain’t it great! This antiaircraft radar can pick up a B-52 bomber from over a hundred miles away, comrade!

It’s all changed now. It’s the largest change in warfare since the invention of gunpowder. Back in the Gulf-Bush Wars, we all watched and marveled at the new whiz bang million dollar missile technology in Iraq. Well, that technology, like almost all technology, has now become ridiculously cheap. Now, instead of sending a thousand B-17 bombers to destroy a factory. You send a few drones to hit specific parts of your target. Your house, your office on the 14^th floor, your car, or even you!

Russian and American anti-aircraft missiles are obsolete. Designed to knock down fighter aircraft or missiles, not tiny little drones. Million-dollar missiles thrown against thousand dollar drones? Unjamable fiber optic drones. Autonomous drones, maritime drones, and even underwater drones. An Australian company has developed inexpensive cardboard drones. It still costs a million dollars to knock them down, though.

Ukraine sent twenty-four of these cardboard drones each marked with foil radar reflector strips to hit a refinery. Enough reflector strips to wake up every radar operator in Russia. On the screen, it looked like an attack. The operators began to zoom in and open fire, and soon the cardboard fleet was decimated. The 12 to 15 million dollars in Russian anti-aircraft missiles were also expended. Then the next line of Ukrainian attack drones suddenly appeared on radar screens, the real ones this time. It’s takes twenty to thirty minutes to reload the Russian anti-aircraft missiles and the drones will be there in ten.

Russia is fighting the new war with old Cold War weapons. The same rigid and inflexible leadership. “Just send a thousand more men!” The Russians are out of tanks and armored personnel carriers, all largely gone, and what’s left is the bottom of the barrel. All of the military legacy built by Stalin and Khruschev squandered away. Russia’s vaunted Victory Day parade was on foot this year. Russia’s heavy causalities are due in part to a lack of transport. Russian soldiers ride in private cars, dirt bikes and donkeys, or on foot. In 1917, Russian troops shivered and starved in isolated outposts along the front without any food or ammunition. Gee, that sounds familiar. It’s like the sound of history repeating itself.

In 1943, the US Mighty Eighth and Ninth Air Force bombed the oil refinery at Ploesti, where Nazi Germany got 40% of its oil. A year later, the Luftwaffe had pilots and planes galore, but no fuel. Checkmate! Because the Luftwaffe had no fuel, more and more bombers got through, and the war was lost. Nes Pax? Ukraine has eliminated 40% of Russian fuel production, and because of the shortage. Russia struggles to make fuel deliveries on time. Russia has lots of oil! Just not at any of its gas stations.  

Crimea reminds me of something Sun Tzu once said. “When you have an enemy surrounded, leave them a golden Kerch bridge to escape on.” Crimea is isolated and almost 4,000 cars are waiting at the bridge trying to get off Crimea, right now. Secret, not so secret, Russian plans call for the evacuation of 250,000 Russian transplants leaving Crimea headed for the old country and taking their ministries with them. The Ukrainians have made it clear that the Kerch Bridge is a target, only, not a target yet. They’re already leaving, so let them go.

I heard a Russian joke the other day. A man approaches a stranger in the park. “Pssst, friend! Would you like to buy some gasoline or oil?” He opens his coat and exposes bottles of fuel attached to the inside of his jacket. The man answered, sure! But what are you doing with that? That’s cooking oil! The man answered, “I’ll tell you next month.”

Russia is evacuating Crimea. The Russian Army is out of tanks. The Russian Air Force is largely made up of irreplaceable antiques. The Russian Navy is hardly worth mentioning as a fighting force. The average life expectancy of a Russian soldier on the battlefield is 20 to 35 minutes. There have been runs on major Russian banks, and the currency is near worthless, and the Russian finance minister has suddenly disappeared due to an illness! She still signs documents and stuff, but no one has seen her in three weeks. Get Well, soon! Be careful! Don’t fall out of any open windows!

I never thought it would go this far. I was so wrong before, who knows? I see the Russian army leaving Ukraine soon, just like they did in Afghanistan. The outcome of the war has already been decided, anything more now is only a punishment for refusing to accept reality. But for Putin, any Russian defeat is his death warrant. In no situation does Putin lose the war and retain power. Putin will either die in Moscow or become that lonely, lonely, bitter old man in a luxury condo in Dubai.

Russia is effectively broke and broken. The experts say sixty days, and by then, all the money will be gone. No more money to run the Army. No more fuel to run the Air Force on. No more money to run the government on. Cause like the man was trying to say; gas lines will soon become bread lines.

“ Every society is three meals away from chaos.” – Vladimir Lenin

You would have thought that Vladimir Putin would have known that? I’m almost certain they would have taught that in Russian schools.