This Carbon Based Life

By David Glenn Cox

I had a friend who was a truck driver in the army. He said that the way they had the trucks geared, top speed was only around 55 mph. In a convoy, the front truck had its foot to the floor while the truck at the end of the convoy is stuck in third gear and only doing 35mph on the interstate. That is logistics in a snapshot, making everyone go at or near the same speed. All it takes is one Private Snafu to mess the whole thing up.

So when Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin says there is enough fuel for everybody, he’s not lying. But since you’re 800 miles from the refinery, there could be some temporary shortages. The pipeline is damaged and there is no highway. So, yes, Virginia, there is plenty of fuel available. But when this delivery doesn’t show up and that delivery may not show up tomorrow. You have some very important decisions to make. Who gets fuel? How much? And how much should I hold back in case of peasant rebellion or something?

One day of fuel allocation that must be spread across two or three days of fuel delivery customers. Now, why is that fuel delivery late? One day of fuel allocation must be spread across two days of fuel customers. The cars get 30 liters (8 gallons) The delivery trucks deliver half-loads to the stations, trying to stretch their own fuel allotment. Because the oil terminals are receiving spotty half-loads themselves from the refinery. Is tomorrow’s shipment likely coming? (Shrugs shoulders) The trucks in the convoy are crashing into each other.

This is why Russia’s death spiral is near certain. There is no way on earth to fix Russian logistics. There is no highway from the refinery to Moscow. There aren’t ten thousand tanker trucks available even if there were a road. This wartime scenario has played out ten thousand times before in ten thousand wars. We’re out of bandages and food or water. When the logistics start to break down, it’s pretty hard to put ole Humpty Dumpty back together again. It’s a difficult thing to put things back in order with only minor disruptions.

[We’re Sorry! But due to circumstances beyond our control. This here oil refinery is closed until late 2027. Please visit one of our other fast and friendly convenient locations all across the Eurasian Continent!] You see the trouble right off, don’t you? It’s no longer a question of oil reserves or refineries, only delivery. There might be tons of oil in Siberia, but what can be delivered locally? Today. How much oil can be delivered today?

Because the miller received no grain. He ground no flour. Because the baker had no flour, he baked no bread. For Russia, this is a terminal and unavoidable condition. Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin is faced with an unfixable problem. A modern day Gordian knot. The US starved Japan of oil and the allies starved Germany of oil. A modern state can’t function or survive without oil.

The rumors say local authorities are clashing with other local authorities over fuel allocations. Police and Fire Departments coming to blows over fuel. If Ukraine takes away 47% of Russian fuel assets and upends the distribution network. Of the remaining 53% assume the military takes at least half off the top. That leaves 26.5%. Now 10% for the police and fire, and another 10% for that well-known Russian corruption. And there is a hefty 2.6% left over. Come on everybody! Come and get it!

But because that delivery didn’t show up and the other delivery didn’t show up. My warehouse  is stacked full of product waiting to be shipped with something else. You can’t ship the canoes without the paddles, and you can’t ship the cars without tires or antifreeze or gas. You can’t ship the milk and the meat without refrigerated trucks. And it all falls down. It’s all over.

If Vladimir Putin were sane, he would bundle up his money and his honey and flee to Dubai. He’s lost the war and now he’s hurting the country. The continuing damage to Russian oil Infrastructure could harm Russia for a generation. All of those widows and orphans are going to need those oil revenues. Wishers, wives and widows, where will the next generation come from, Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin? While all the eighteen year olds are inducted their children must remain imaginary in heaven and be replaced by weeds and rot, dust and ruin.

For Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin this is a death struggle. The goal of this war is keeping Putin alive. He must win to retain the power of continued breathing. This is high-stakes pirate-mafia politics. Playing Musical Oligarchs, every time the music stops someone else is missing. Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin has been busy nationalizing private companies. Vladimir giveith and Vladimir taketh away! It’s all yours! Yes! You own it! Unless I say otherwise. One of these oligarchs was making $600,000 per month just for being Vlad’s friend. That’s pretty good money for brown-nosing work and sitting around on your ass.

Oh, but the times they are a changin. This started out as your plain old fashioned Soviet style 1970s invasion with tanks and armored personnel carriers. The tanks and planes were quickly targeted with expensive shoulder-fired missiles. When those ran out, they switched to inexpensive drones. The war has changed; they call it the gray zone now along the front. An area 35 miles wide controlled entirely by lethal drones. The war is being controlled by nineteen- and twenty-year-olds with artificial reality goggles and a video game controller.

Do you see what they’ve done? Ukraine has Walmarted the war. All of those super expensive million dollar missiles replaced by a cheap drone with a landmine duct-taped to it. It looks almost Looney Tunes, but it works! The war goes largely stagnant on the front as the real battle moves on now towards Moscow. There is a permanence to the affairs of human beings in war. Signs in the heavens which cannot be postponed or delayed.

The German general staff told the Kaiser that the German army would collapse in less than two weeks, and the Kaiser abdicated. Emperor Hirohito was forced to break a tie in the war council. To endure the unendurable because he knew that the war was over and he loved his country. It’s only the worms and maggots who hide out buried in their basement bunkers somewhere willing to fight it out right down to the last eighteen-year-old. They may never take Vladimir alive, but they will take him. Help! Help! Help me Donald Trump, Help! Come rescue me!

Change can come suddenly, like a thief in the night, and usually does.