By David Glenn Cox
It seems all war is based on calculation or miscalculation. It’s just easy to fall backwards sometimes while walking on the wise man’s path. The unfounded speculation of “they wouldn’t dare.” Then somebody does dare, either intentionally or unintentionally.
Always there is a belief of the short war. The war will be over by Christmas! We’ll send our boys and they’ll set things right in no time. We’ll mop up the floor with them, famous last words. So, the best way to stay out of a protracted conflict is by not stumbling blindly into one unnecessarily.
Vladimir Putin miscalculated when he invaded Ukraine. It was going to be all over in a few days. The myth of the lightning war, they won’t know what hit them. Putin miscalculated the strength and speed of his military and his weapons. Now, two years later…
Vladimir Putin is a tyrant. That point cannot be argued. He kills people for fun and profit. As leader of the Russian Federation, he invaded his neighbor in a fit of conquest. The Russian military stalled, and inadequacies became apparent. The Ukrainians fought like tigers and stopped the bear in its tracks. The collective West supplying the weapons.
The West understands that unprovoked aggression anywhere is a threat to all everywhere. Russia won’t get better and mend its ways by itself. How do you fix something that never worked in the first place? Russia is systemically generationally dysfunctional, Churchill’s riddle, mystery, and enigma.
But in a stalemate and a war of attrition the best battle plan is to expand the front and bring in allies. The Russian military is in bad shape having lost so many vehicles and troops owing to the type of terrain and the rise of the attack drone. Any exposed armor is a target and there are few places to hide. A high-tech version of WW1. “The generals spat and the lines on the map they moved from side to side!”
The elimination of Vladimir Putin is a worthy goal. Shall we dance or stumble? Just throw it all up in the air and see what happens next? 50/50 this might even turn out good, who knows? American foreign policy being played with cavalierly. Until the House Republicans shut off military aid to Ukraine all the Ukrainians had to do was continue to prevail.
Now there is a new hope in Moscow, the Republicans will save us!!
Nature abhors a vacuum, power or otherwise. Those who play with fire sometimes get burnt. The House Republicans by withholding aid create that vacuum. By the United States standing up forcefully Putin was cowed, but by its inaction House Republicans might just stumble us into WW3.
Our allies, you remember them, right? It’s a tendency when you live on a big continent to think, that’s somebody else’s problem. Let Europeans solve that themselves. And well, some of them are getting a little bit nervous. If US military commitments are just bargaining chips for domestic policy. What does an alliance even mean? If the US will walk away from Ukraine, how do you know they won’t walk away from you?
We will support you unconditionally, provided of course, it’s not an election year and we have a majority in Congress. Deal?
So, these nervous types in France and Britain and Poland are talking about sending troops into Ukraine. Ideally, the troops will be non-combatants. Realistically, how long do you think that will that last? Before a truck hits a mine or someone shoots down the wrong airplane. Congratulations! Welcome to the world war started just to get border concessions out of the Biden Administration during an election year. Like lend-lease do you want to give them the damn destroyers or would you rather man them yourself?
What sort of world do we want to live in? Dictators and military conquest? There are hungry eyes watching this situation very closely. But if Russia can get away with it, why can’t we? Projecting strength through weakness. Creating a vacuum and playing with fire. It is better to have a seat at the table than not. It’s better to lead the conversation than to find out later what was said.
Putin has spoken about using nukes in Ukraine and putting nukes in low earth orbit. Does he say such things because things are going so well for him? Does that sound like someone you can make a reasonable bargain with? “I have here a note, with Herr Hitler’s signature on it.”
House Republicans are betting the farm on one roll of the dice it won’t go that far. If Putin is allowed to prevail in Ukraine, our allies will get involved in a shooting war with Russia. And thus, the US will be involved in a shooting war with Russia. Our allies aren’t going to tolerate a victorious Putin on their border. Collectively, the Europeans have given more in aid than the US. The only step left if the US won’t pony up is direct participation. Boy, that aid package sure looks like a bargain now!
The President has released the last $4 billion in military aid which had been earmarked as an emergency fund. Seeing as it is now an emergency. As House Republicans are sleepwalking off the dock. Putin plays chess while house Republicans play with themselves “Duh what?” Any allied shooting war between now and November, makes Joe Biden a wartime President. Wartime Presidents never lose their reelection races.
House Republicans willing to throw away the White House and possibly Congress after stumbling into a World War for domestic border concessions.
House Republicans innocently bumbling along unaware of the policy; “You Break it, You Buy it!”
“There are many ways of going forward, but only one way of standing still.” ― Franklin D. Roosevelt
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